Soccer Hipster: Matchday 11 Preview

  • Barcelona is fine. They lost last week to Celta Vigo but Celta has the offensive players who can convert the limited, but very real, chances that Barcelona gives their opponents every week. Almería on the other hand has one strength listed on whoscored.com, “creates long shot opportunities”. That’s a fine skill, but when it’s their only one it seems more like the folks at whoscored could just say “they’re going timber” under team profiles. You won’t get good odds so don’t bet on it but Barcelona will win by at least 2 goals.
  • Rayo Vallecano has made the philosophical decision that they will not sit deep against the big clubs, which is awesome. That fact is also why according to bet365 you’re only getting 1.17 odds (all odds from bet365) for Real over 2.5 goals against them this weekend at Bernabéu. Bale returns and assists on one of CR7’s 2 goals in an easy win for Los Blancos.
  • The Eibar story has been the most entertaining part of La Liga for me this season. This small town in the mountains of the Basque Country, with a stadium that only holds 8,000 people is currently 10th in the league. They’ve done it by defending well and converting on set pieces and counter attacks. This hasn’t been the most attractive football, but they’re not parking the bus either. Their hosts this weekend, Malaga are seventh in the table largely due to their 4 straight wins against relegation candidates. Eibar is a cut above that group. Bet the draw at 3.75 and the Eibar win at 6.00.
  • When the Spanish FA calls me up to ask for my help in growing the popularity of their league in America, the first change we’re making is to stop playing exciting matches Sunday afternoon. The fixture between Valencia and Athletic Club is the best of the weekend and it falls at 1 PM on the East Coast. Athletic Club are better than their position in the table but they had a Champions League game in midweek and Valencia is the only team that might disrupt the top three from last season. The Valencia win at 1.62 isn’t worth it but the win/win (leading at halftime and at the end of the match) at 2.40 with the way Valencia flies out of the gate is good value.
  • I have a soft spot for all three Basque sides but Real Sociedad deserves their spot in the relegation zone. They have too much quality to go down but not enough to beat the visiting Atletí this weekend. Atletico Madrid will win and there will be under 2.5 goals, but at 1.80 and 1.73 respectively those odds are not good enough to play. If either of those jumps above 2 before the match (like after Real Sociedad announce David Moyes as their new manager) then get your money down.

To summarize:

  • Bet
    • Eibar to win at 6 and to draw at 3.75
    • Valencia win/win at 2.4
    • Atletico Madrid Real Sociedad under 2.5 goals if the line goes to 2.0 or above
    • Atletico Madrid to win if the line goes to 2.0 or above.

The Sideline Newbies

The blog is going to take a look at some NBA storylines that interest us and debate. We decided to tackle the bench leadership first.

The NBA has 4 brand new coaches. They are all coming into vastly different situations, but how will they each fare with their own unique set of expectations in their first year? Let’s get the writers’ thoughts.

AS – Quin Snyder: Where do I start… google Quin and the most popular searches involve cocaine, divorce and affairs. He probably landed in the right spot, as illegal drugs may be harder to obtain in Salt Lake City. He has a young team with 2 guards trying figure out how to play in the NBA, and a second option in Hayward parading as the franchise player. My general opinion of Quin from what I can remember is as a good recruiter, which is not particularly helpful in the league. However, I seem to recall him being excellent with young guards. I might have made that up, but I don’t think so.
Prediction: Exceeds expectations

Steve Kerr: schooled by Pop and Phil, seems to be set up for a long run in Golden State. I believe he will manage personnel better than Mark Jackson, but I also think there is less to work with than meets the eye. He has surrounded himself with great basketball minds, and the defense will be improved. However, injuries, difficulty implementing triangle principles and unfairly high expectations will plague Kerr all year. Still, he made the right choice in teams, and I see a deep postseason run for them in the next two years. Just not this year.
Prediction: Underachieves

David Blatt: Steps into the best situation by far. He has smart veterans and the best player in the world. Lebron and the rest of the team has been downplaying their chances, but anything short of a championship will be viewed as a failure because LBJ is involved. David will put a terrific offense on the court, but his defensive tactics will lag. The Cavs will struggle with team chemistry for the first half of the season but gain steam down the stretch.
Prediction: Meets expectations

Derek Fisher: Not good. Being a good player, good locker room guy and having played for Phil does not equal a good coach. But, hey, I also thought Jason Kidd was a bad move. Wait, nevermind. Knicks struggle with rotations and utilizing Melo, who in turn complains to the media 2.5 times a week. Derek Fisher realizes coaching is hard, and that he cannot foul players blatantly from the sideline and get away with it from the bench. He tries to force a trade to Seattle, then retires unexpectedly from coaching.
Prediction: Vastly underachieves

RP: Quin: At first I was reading “illegal drugs are harder to obtain” as a bad thing. I need to reevaluate myself this morning. I know almost nothing about Quin Snyder except he’s going to coach a basketball team that isn’t very good, so it might be a rough go. I figure it’ll be easy enough to play the popular NBA style of close shots and tons of threes and not disappoint too much, but there’s so many roster questions for them it doesn’t really matter.

Kerr: This team is a lot deeper than you’re giving them credit for. They have backups at three positions that could almost certainly start for many NBA teams right now. They somehow still have ammunition to take a swing at acquiring another frontcourt player, too. Despite the common perception of them being offensive juggernauts, they were actually around league average in offensive production. I don’t see how Kerr can’t get more out of these guys than Mark Jackson, but I do expect some defensive regression. Every coach that has tried to implement the triangle who isn’t Phil Jackson has failed, so I think they should give up on that REAL quick, but I think Kerr is smart enough to realize the idea of a system is inherently flawed. I mean, his Phoenix teams (I know he GM’d there, but he still had some input) never played the triangle, and they almost made the Finals once. Also Shaun Livingston is going to be great here.

Blatt: I could coach this Cleveland team to 55 wins. Seriously, I don’t think their head coach could possibly be a detriment. I guess maybe if tried to kill someone on the team, but insane stuff notwithstanding it’ll be cool. LeBron won 62 games with Mike Brown coaching and his second and third best players were Mo Williams and Anderson Varejao, and he’s a lot better now. I’m not going to pretend like I know anything about Blatt at all, but my point is this team is going to be incredible regardless of what he does.

Fish: This dude definitely should have taken some time off before pursuing a coaching career. I’m not convinced that Phil has solved the toxicity of New York’s management yet, nor that he’ll be able to. Their roster is bad. Like, I just opened up their depth chart on ESPN and it’s worse than I thought it was. Their frontcourt is going to be an absolute disaster. The only position that looks well-stocked is seriously shooting guard, and just to remind you, that’s Iman Shumpert and JR Smith. Carmelo’s gonna love those checks but hate this basketball.

NS – Quin Snyder: Quin brings me back to my college days when Illinois was very very good at basketball. Snyder’s Mizzou teams were a regular fixture in a game that took place in “The Lou’” and allowed me to yell things like “Quin Snyder has a girl’s haircut” and “Quin Snyder’s favorite song is ‘White Lines’” which was probably not true since it’s about the dangers of cocaine usage. The 04-05 Tigers team’s best player was Linas Kleiza and they did terribly. I’m willing to say that Quin is probably a fine coach and Kleiza was a fine college basketball player, but he still got beat by Bruce Weber and Rick Barnes coached teams that year because Deron Williams was on the Illini, and PJ Tucker and LaMarcus Aldridge were playing for the Longhorns. Gordon Heyward is probably the NBA equivalent of Linas Kleiza and a coach can only do so much.

Steve Kerr: I’m really excited about the Golden State Warriors. The team is loaded and they could use the exact same system as last year with just a couple of tweaks to how they staggered their rotation, and they would improve offensively. I’m guessing Steve Kerr will want to do a little more than that, whether it’s triangle-lite or a more Princeton style, it doesn’t really matter. The press loves Steve so as long as the players aren’t getting into altercations with each other on the court and they make the playoffs he’ll probably win coach of the year.

David Blatt: The guy will be fine. His team is loaded with talent and some NBA writers are already talking about him as a genius. He would win coach of the year except that honor is going to Kerr. My hope is that this will be the first of many international managers brought into the NBA. One of the great joys of European football is listening to people give press conferences in their second or third language and occasionally saying something that does not translate correctly. Unfortunately Blatt grew up in Massachussets, so anything he says that offends will be offense intended.

Derek Fisher: Every time I see him in a suit I flash back to the lock out and how ineffective this “locker-room” guy seemed at getting the players union to unite. He does push the Knicks further towards the polar opposite of the Cavs. Lebron is inclusive and wants to make all of his teammates like playing with him where as Melo would probably be fine going one on five on offense. Phil Jackson is one of the greatest coaches in history and is now moving into a different, but probably not entirely foreign to him front-office role, whereas Lebron James is still playing basketball and acting as the Cavs GM. David Blatt has been coaching professional basketball since 1993 and will be hailed as a genius even if his offense is just have Kevin Love set picks for Kyrie Irving and LBJ, whereas Fisher was brought in to be the fall guy when this Knicks teams is still terrible three years from now. It’s OK, the Lakers job will probably be open then.

So overall, the blog is not sure on Quin, but we all agree it probably won’t matter. We disagree on Kerr, but that is more about the roster depth than the actual coach, though the type of offense he implements will be intriguing to track. Basic agreement on Blatt and Fish, though I think that the Cavs will take longer to gel than most.

Let’s keep the debate going in the comments. Whose progress will be the most interesting to follow this season??