Wrapping up 2015: College Basketball Edition

It was a down year in college basketball for me. It speaks to the direction of the game that I have to force myself to watch college ball over the NBA. Perhaps it’s just me, but it seems like the basketball crowd is swinging towards the NBA more each year. I’m hearing fewer and fewer people throw out the blanket statement, “The NBA sucks. I like college.” Regardless, NCAA hoops will always have one of the 4 greatest sporting events, and it has the benefit of occurring annually. (My other 3: Super Bowl, Ryder Cup and World Cup.) 2015 was no exception to the rule, so let’s wrap up the NCAA tourney and peer into our glass ball for the future of college basketball.

The Final

Duke deserved the title. Their game plan was solid, subtle adjustments worked for them, and the players executed down the stretch. With Tyus Jones’ huge shots, their defense might get lost in the mix. But defense won the game for the Dukies. The Blue Devils knew what Wisconsin wanted to do and tailored their defensive game plan accordingly. Wisconsin needed more Kaminsky, but Duke made that extremely difficult, if not impossible. The number of times Tank had to start moves with a dribble drive had to be at least double the average. Frank can do it, but he IS still a slow footed 7 footer. Enough hands and bodies forced him to give it up more times than not. Combine that with the guard pressure challenging all passes, and getting Frank Kaminsky the ball on the block was quite the task.

Wisconsin did not deserve the title. The best players were outperformed down the stretch. Dekker’s shot looked tired. The pressure bothered the guards, and Bo Ryan played the same way he had all year, which means high screens absolutely killed them. Coach K knew he could get Tyus Jones a shot at any time because there was not going to be a show from the big. The offense looked pathetic against the zone Duke employed, negating any foul trouble advantages. Wisconsin would never change their offensive game plan, but the Badger’s offense would have benefitted from a few set plays in the vein of an NBA offense. Spread shooters out and set some high pick and rolls. Koenig could beat his man, but there was too much trash at the top of the key and lane any time he did. Spreading Duke out and working a two man game would have produced some better looks, especially in crunch time.

The refs need to be relegated. Can we do that? Those three should be officiating junior high girls next year. In the NBA, rarely are refs labeled this dependably bad. Consistency was the issue. Consistency from the first half to the second half, consistency from outside the lane to at the basket. Duke’s guards were handsy and bodying Wisconsin guards up and down the court. That was fine in the first half, as I felt that was happening on both sides, all over the court. The refs must have looked at the foul total, or heard Coach K talk at halftime. Duke was given the benefit of the doubt with every collision at the rim. There were 4 calls that were just not fouls and if anything, should have been praised as good defense. Duke’s guards have a bad (is it bad if it works?) habit of using their off arm to clear out space. When the defender tries to recover, the offensive player throws his body forward to create contact. What are NBA refs taught that college refs aren’t? Why are NBA refs so much better at simply not blowing their whistle?

And why the hell do we even have reviews? 5 minutes were wasted to get it wrong. From this tournament, college basketball has to revamp the review system, or just scratch it, because the NCAA is obviously clueless. The MLB and NFL have implemented some sort of off the field crew. Why could this not be done for the Final Four??? The ball was clearly off Winslow, from every angle.  I understand how the ball was rewarded to Duke initially, but every replay angle indicated otherwise. I do not enjoy watching three grown men make fools of themselves.

NBA Potential

Frank Kaminsky: Best Case – Poor man’s Gasol, Worst Case – Chris Kaman

Frank is soft on defense. I’m not sure if he was trying to avoid foul trouble, or if he just is that movable on the block. He will have to be able to stand his ground in the NBA. He uses his body very intelligently, and I think he will be able to rebound at the NBA level. His offense is more than NBA ready, so teams will have to judge where he fits into their defensive schemes. Barring injury, he’ll make money playing basketball for a while.

Sam Dekker: Best Case – Matt Barnes, Worst Case – Chase Budinger

Dekker has to work on his outside shooting and defense. I see him as a slasher that can hold his own on defense. He’ll never be a stopper but should defend well in a scheme. The jumper will be the key. If he develops a midrange that is at least a threat and can shoot 40% from three, then that will help set up the strengths we all saw in the Final Four.

Jahlil Okafor: Best Case – DeMarcus Cousins, Worst Case – Brook Lopez

Freshmen are always difficult to project, which is why the range is wider. At worst case, Jahlil will be a force to be reckoned with on the offensive end, as he already possesses a solid offensive infrastructure for a big. If he stays in shape, works on 16’ jumpers and is ready to work on defense at least 75% of the time, then he’s a slightly less athletic Boogie without the baggage. If he doesn’t, he’ll be getting 30 touches a night for a 30 win team as opposing bigs make him their son. No offense Brook.

Justise Winslow: Best Case – James Harden, Worse Case – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Athleticism is not difficult to project. Winslow could never improve his jumper, forget how to get to the basket, insult Dorothy Mantooth and still be a force in the NBA with his athleticism. USA today  compared him to Jimmy Butler or Kawhi. Those two did not have the aggression or ball handling that Justise has coming out of college. Now, Winslow is still raw. He has moments where he predetermines he’s going to the basket, which will not work at the next level. However, he’s got the Eurostep and left handedness going for him already…

Going forward

It was a fairly typical regular season. The Big Ten beat each other up. The ACC was strong and showed it in the tourney. The Big 12 was strong and took a crap at center court because some things never change. Whatever the Big East is now had a couple good teams, then failed to meet expectations. West coast basketball, as we used to know it, doesn’t exist anymore.

I want to look at the bigger picture moving forward in college basketball. The toothpaste, as the saying goes, is out of the tube. Coach K is now recruiting freshmen that will, in all likelihood, leave after a year. This year you saw what a good coach can do with a couple of those players. Duke was up and down all season, but that’s because Krzyzewski had to speed his process up. He had one season to fit pieces together instead of 2 or 3. While this resulted in some bad losses early, the skipper found out what he needed to know about his 18 and 19 year old kids. We saw how that came together in the tournament.

This is not saying Calipari is a bad coach; he just isn’t a great one. He’s an amazing recruiter and a solid coach. He’s just not transcendent, for whatever reason, with the X’s and O’s,and it cost them against Wisconsin. You can bet Coach K will always put his kids in a position to win, which is scary for all the rest.

So who is the next one to give in to the reality of college basketball? Bo Ryan will be the last. Tom Crean probably doesn’t know who won the national championship. Does Izzo jump next? Look out for Shaka down in Texas. Within 2 years that program will be formidable. Eventually, UCLA will hit on a prospect and jumpstart their program. Arizona has already started down that road.

Other programs will start selling out for these guys yearly. Previously, I think programs wanted the Kentucky players, but coaches were afraid they were just wasting time, and wondered if they could even win that way. Duke just proved you can, even without an Anthony Davis type superstar. If the rules regarding NBA eligibility don’t change, college basketball is drifting towards 6 or so elite teams that get the majority of these recruits and duel it out at the end of the year. There will be a few programs here and there that compete with a traditional approach, but even those team require running into NBA talent (see Wisconsin). Do we really want to see Kentucky, Texas and Duke battle it out each year? It’s good for the programs, but how good is it for the sport? How good is it for the players?

The Sideline Newbies

The blog is going to take a look at some NBA storylines that interest us and debate. We decided to tackle the bench leadership first.

The NBA has 4 brand new coaches. They are all coming into vastly different situations, but how will they each fare with their own unique set of expectations in their first year? Let’s get the writers’ thoughts.

AS – Quin Snyder: Where do I start… google Quin and the most popular searches involve cocaine, divorce and affairs. He probably landed in the right spot, as illegal drugs may be harder to obtain in Salt Lake City. He has a young team with 2 guards trying figure out how to play in the NBA, and a second option in Hayward parading as the franchise player. My general opinion of Quin from what I can remember is as a good recruiter, which is not particularly helpful in the league. However, I seem to recall him being excellent with young guards. I might have made that up, but I don’t think so.
Prediction: Exceeds expectations

Steve Kerr: schooled by Pop and Phil, seems to be set up for a long run in Golden State. I believe he will manage personnel better than Mark Jackson, but I also think there is less to work with than meets the eye. He has surrounded himself with great basketball minds, and the defense will be improved. However, injuries, difficulty implementing triangle principles and unfairly high expectations will plague Kerr all year. Still, he made the right choice in teams, and I see a deep postseason run for them in the next two years. Just not this year.
Prediction: Underachieves

David Blatt: Steps into the best situation by far. He has smart veterans and the best player in the world. Lebron and the rest of the team has been downplaying their chances, but anything short of a championship will be viewed as a failure because LBJ is involved. David will put a terrific offense on the court, but his defensive tactics will lag. The Cavs will struggle with team chemistry for the first half of the season but gain steam down the stretch.
Prediction: Meets expectations

Derek Fisher: Not good. Being a good player, good locker room guy and having played for Phil does not equal a good coach. But, hey, I also thought Jason Kidd was a bad move. Wait, nevermind. Knicks struggle with rotations and utilizing Melo, who in turn complains to the media 2.5 times a week. Derek Fisher realizes coaching is hard, and that he cannot foul players blatantly from the sideline and get away with it from the bench. He tries to force a trade to Seattle, then retires unexpectedly from coaching.
Prediction: Vastly underachieves

RP: Quin: At first I was reading “illegal drugs are harder to obtain” as a bad thing. I need to reevaluate myself this morning. I know almost nothing about Quin Snyder except he’s going to coach a basketball team that isn’t very good, so it might be a rough go. I figure it’ll be easy enough to play the popular NBA style of close shots and tons of threes and not disappoint too much, but there’s so many roster questions for them it doesn’t really matter.

Kerr: This team is a lot deeper than you’re giving them credit for. They have backups at three positions that could almost certainly start for many NBA teams right now. They somehow still have ammunition to take a swing at acquiring another frontcourt player, too. Despite the common perception of them being offensive juggernauts, they were actually around league average in offensive production. I don’t see how Kerr can’t get more out of these guys than Mark Jackson, but I do expect some defensive regression. Every coach that has tried to implement the triangle who isn’t Phil Jackson has failed, so I think they should give up on that REAL quick, but I think Kerr is smart enough to realize the idea of a system is inherently flawed. I mean, his Phoenix teams (I know he GM’d there, but he still had some input) never played the triangle, and they almost made the Finals once. Also Shaun Livingston is going to be great here.

Blatt: I could coach this Cleveland team to 55 wins. Seriously, I don’t think their head coach could possibly be a detriment. I guess maybe if tried to kill someone on the team, but insane stuff notwithstanding it’ll be cool. LeBron won 62 games with Mike Brown coaching and his second and third best players were Mo Williams and Anderson Varejao, and he’s a lot better now. I’m not going to pretend like I know anything about Blatt at all, but my point is this team is going to be incredible regardless of what he does.

Fish: This dude definitely should have taken some time off before pursuing a coaching career. I’m not convinced that Phil has solved the toxicity of New York’s management yet, nor that he’ll be able to. Their roster is bad. Like, I just opened up their depth chart on ESPN and it’s worse than I thought it was. Their frontcourt is going to be an absolute disaster. The only position that looks well-stocked is seriously shooting guard, and just to remind you, that’s Iman Shumpert and JR Smith. Carmelo’s gonna love those checks but hate this basketball.

NS – Quin Snyder: Quin brings me back to my college days when Illinois was very very good at basketball. Snyder’s Mizzou teams were a regular fixture in a game that took place in “The Lou’” and allowed me to yell things like “Quin Snyder has a girl’s haircut” and “Quin Snyder’s favorite song is ‘White Lines’” which was probably not true since it’s about the dangers of cocaine usage. The 04-05 Tigers team’s best player was Linas Kleiza and they did terribly. I’m willing to say that Quin is probably a fine coach and Kleiza was a fine college basketball player, but he still got beat by Bruce Weber and Rick Barnes coached teams that year because Deron Williams was on the Illini, and PJ Tucker and LaMarcus Aldridge were playing for the Longhorns. Gordon Heyward is probably the NBA equivalent of Linas Kleiza and a coach can only do so much.

Steve Kerr: I’m really excited about the Golden State Warriors. The team is loaded and they could use the exact same system as last year with just a couple of tweaks to how they staggered their rotation, and they would improve offensively. I’m guessing Steve Kerr will want to do a little more than that, whether it’s triangle-lite or a more Princeton style, it doesn’t really matter. The press loves Steve so as long as the players aren’t getting into altercations with each other on the court and they make the playoffs he’ll probably win coach of the year.

David Blatt: The guy will be fine. His team is loaded with talent and some NBA writers are already talking about him as a genius. He would win coach of the year except that honor is going to Kerr. My hope is that this will be the first of many international managers brought into the NBA. One of the great joys of European football is listening to people give press conferences in their second or third language and occasionally saying something that does not translate correctly. Unfortunately Blatt grew up in Massachussets, so anything he says that offends will be offense intended.

Derek Fisher: Every time I see him in a suit I flash back to the lock out and how ineffective this “locker-room” guy seemed at getting the players union to unite. He does push the Knicks further towards the polar opposite of the Cavs. Lebron is inclusive and wants to make all of his teammates like playing with him where as Melo would probably be fine going one on five on offense. Phil Jackson is one of the greatest coaches in history and is now moving into a different, but probably not entirely foreign to him front-office role, whereas Lebron James is still playing basketball and acting as the Cavs GM. David Blatt has been coaching professional basketball since 1993 and will be hailed as a genius even if his offense is just have Kevin Love set picks for Kyrie Irving and LBJ, whereas Fisher was brought in to be the fall guy when this Knicks teams is still terrible three years from now. It’s OK, the Lakers job will probably be open then.

So overall, the blog is not sure on Quin, but we all agree it probably won’t matter. We disagree on Kerr, but that is more about the roster depth than the actual coach, though the type of offense he implements will be intriguing to track. Basic agreement on Blatt and Fish, though I think that the Cavs will take longer to gel than most.

Let’s keep the debate going in the comments. Whose progress will be the most interesting to follow this season??

Thunder Emergency

The Thunder may have a slight panic for the first three weeks of the season, but it may not become apparent until everyone starts worrying about playoff seeding.

The Obvious

Kevin Durant is missing at least four weeks of the season.  It’s unclear how quickly his injury is healing at this point, but suffice to say it’s bad for your team when its best player is sidelined.  It’s worse when that player put up the 15th highest usage percentage (33.0%), the 9th highest win shares per 48 minutes (0.295), and the 22nd highest minutes total (3239) of any player.  Like, in any season ever (minimum 37 mpg), not just in 2013-214.

The Not Wonderful, but Probably Not Terrible By Any Stretch

The guy picking up the slack, Westbrook, doesn’t really have a history of playing without Durant.  Thought the type of historical relevance achieved by Durant certainly isn’t necessary to win games, it’s necessary to maintain a dominant win percentage against the likes of the Western Conference. Westbrook has never had to play almost 40 mpg like Durant and also doesn’t have career win shares per 48 in the same vein of Durant.

That being said, he has been utilized extremely heavily by the Thunder in recent seasons, his usage rating has risen in every season of his career.  In his ever increasing role, his efficiency has also increased every season.  Basically, though Westbrook may not have the kind of Atlas-like role that Durant has shouldered, he is extremely good.  However; the bottom line, which we already kind of knew, is that he’s not Durant.  In this reversal of last season in which Westbrook missed a hefty portion, I’d expect the Thunder’s record to marginally suffer.

The Ugly (at least for the First Part of the Season)

The Thunder haven’t been a deep team for a few years now.  They can tolerate some injuries and still be a top tier team, but multiple injuries can set them back.  In the last week the Thunder have ruled out several players in addition to Durant, the most notable of which are:

 Reggie Jackson – out 2 games (sprained thumb)

 Jeremy Lamb – out 2 games (back)

 Anthony Morrow – out several weeks (strained MCL)

That’s the Thunder’s entire shooting guard rotation.  For at least the first two games the Thunder will be trotting out this lineup against the Trailblazers and Clippers at home:

Westbrook / Telfair

Perry Jones

Andre Roberson / Lance Thomas

Serge Ibaka / Nick Collison

Stephen Adams / Kendrick Perkins

For the record, the entire SF/SG rotation has fewer career minutes than Durant played last season.  At this point there’s no word on if Jackson and Lamb will make quick returns, but it’s imperative that they do quickly.  The Thunder start with a rough schedule: 5 home games in their first 13, 4 back to backs (each of which leads to a 3 games in 4 nights situation), and road games against the Trailblazers, Clippers, Raptors, and Nuggets with the Grizzlies and Rockets coming to visit in Oklahoma.  Though Westbrook will probably pulls some victories out of thin air, there’s a good chance the Thunder will come through this first gauntlet with a few more losses than projected.  Though they almost certainly won’t damage the Thunder’s playoff aspirations, the additional L’s could certainly be the difference between the 3 and 6 spots in an extremely tight Western Conference.

Phony NBA Playoffs Preview: West

Western Phony Preview, No Research Except for Standings
CURRENT STANDINGS ACCORDING TO ESPN.COM
1. New Orleans: 0-0
2. Dallas: 0-0
3. Denver: 0-0
4. Golden State: 0-0
5. Houston: 0-0
6. LA Clippers: 0-0
7. LA Lakers: 0-0
8. Minnesota: 0-0

#1 New Orleans Pelicans vs. #8 Minneosta Timberwolves

Matchups

PG: Jrue Holiday vs. Ricky Rubio.

Rubio’s lockdown defensive presence will be a big boon in the playoffs, but can he put points up??? Holiday is expected to be back at full strength following his first post-injury season, but can he keep up with the wily Spaniard? No, Rubio is better. Point Wolves.

SG: Eric Gordon vs. Kevin Martin.

Is Eric’s heart truly in this series? After a promising beginning to his career playing alongside a dominant power forward in Blake Griffin, it’s not been smooth sailing for Gordon, who plays alongside a dominant power forward in Anthony Davis. He truly has had the deck stacked against him. Kevin Martin can shoot a damn three like it’s a layup and puts up his best numbers when he doesn’t have other players getting in the way of his frequently impressive lines like 37 points on 15 shots. Point Wolves.

SF: Tyreke Evans vs. Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins has never had an observable impact on an NBA offense or defense. Point Pelicans.

PF: Anthony Davis vs. Thaddeus Young

Both were the best players on their team at a point last year. This is a wash.

C: Omer Asik vs. Nikolai Pekovic

I suspect these guys don’t really have a ton of close personal relationships with their teams due to A: the language barrier, B: the difference between Eastern European and American humor, C: the fact that both of them steal rebounds. How do you even deal with that? Point for Pekovic’s beard.

Verdict – Upset! Minnesota wins in six games.

#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers

Matchups

PG: Raymond Felton vs. Jeremy Lin

Raymond Felton replaced Jeremy Lin in New York after Lin woke up and decided living in Texas is awesome. The Knicks missed the playoffs last year and their coach got fired. Advantage Lakers.

SG: Kobe Bryant vs. Monta Ellis

These guys have something in common in that they both want to be 1998 Kobe Bryant. Advantage: Mavs.

SF: I honestly don’t remember vs. Chandler Parsons

Chandler Parsons, breaker of hearts, is a total babe. He also shoots threes and probably owes Dirk Nowitzki 10 million dollars. There’s no way he’s worse than whoever the Lakers start here. Advantage: Mavs.

PF: Carlos Boozer vs. Dirk Nowitzki

I kinda thought that Boozer was going to end up on the Rockets for a while this summer, and I was terrified. One time Daryl Morey tried to trade for Dirk Nowitzki, and it backfired so hard that Chandler Parsons doesn’t play for the Rockets anymore. Points is: why did Boozer ever leave LeBron? Advantage: Mavs.

C: Jordan Hill vs. Tyson Chandler

The Mavericks have almost cornered the market on Chandlers in the NBA. By my estimation, they’re Wilson Chandler short. Let’s get it together, Mark Cuban. Also, Jordan Hill is a good rebounder. Advantage: Mavs.

Verdict – Lakers win 0-4, attain top draft pick.

#3 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Los Angeles Clippers

Matchups

PG: Ty Lawson vs. Chris Paul

These guys are both short and fast enough that it’s impossible to observe their game using the naked eye. Lawson appears to run faster in the open court, Paul spends more time on my TV due to his advanced advertising technique. Also, to quite Drake, Chris Paul is “workin’ like he got a fuckin’ twin, tho”. Advantage: Cliff Paul.

SG: Aron Afflalo vs. JJ Redick

Duke sucks. Advantage: Nuggets

SF: Wilson Chandler vs. Matt Barnes (I guess?)

Wilson Chandler won’t have his heart entirely into this matchup because he misses the rest of the Chandlers so much. Also, Matt Barnes isn’t real great at much beyond pissing people off at this point. Advantage: no one.

PF: Kenneth Faried vs. Blake Griffin

Both tried to play for Team USA this summer, but Blake didn’t even make the team. Advantage: Nuggets.

C: Nenad Kristic (probably) vs. Deandre Jordan
Deandre Jordan can jump really high, block shots occasionally, and once killed Brandon Knight with a dunk. I’m not even sure if Nenad is actually on the Nuggets. Advantage: Clippers.

Verdict – after a long series, the Nuggets fail to overcome the Clippers’ combination of attempted physical play and unfulfilled championship promises. Clippers in 5.

#4 Golden State Warriors vs. #5 Houston Rockets

Matchups

PG: Stephen Curry vs. Patrick Beverley

People seem to like Stepehn Curry, he’ll probably do pretty well. Advantage: Warriors

SG: Klay Thompson vs. James Harden

The Warriors literally could have had Kevin Love on their roster but chose to keep Klay Thompson. Advantage: Cleveland Cavaliers.

SF: Andre Iguodala vs. Trevor Ariza

Andre Iguodala is best remembered as the AI who is not Allen Iverson but also played in Philly. The changes have been kind to him, but he’s had some issues staying on the floor. Trevor Ariza is no longer in a contract year, and I am terrified. Advantage: Golden State.

PF: David Lee vs. Terrence Jones

I like David Lee a lot more when people were making fun of his defense instead of James Harden’s. Advantage: Houston.

C: Andrew Bogut vs. Dwight Howard

Bogut also has trouble staying on the court. Dwight was incredible last year. Advantage – Houston.

Verdict: Rockets in 5 ohgodplease

Shane Battier has Been Mentioned in 8 Rap Songs

Shane Battier has had a very interesting career in basketball.

He played for four years at Duke University.  While playing under Mike Krzyzewski, he became one of the most decorated college players of all time. Here are some of his accolades (of which there are many) that I feel are the most important to his basketball resume: in 2001 he was crowned the College Player of the Year (Naismith and AP), was the ACC player of the year, won the National Championship, was an Academic All American, and after he graduated had his number (31) retired by Duke.

Post-Duke, Shane was drafted 6th overall in the 2001 NBA draft by the Memphis Grizzlies, was eventually traded to the Houston Rockets, was traded BACK to the Grizzlies. After his second stint in Memphis, Shane signed with the Miami Heat, where he added two-time NBA Champion to his list of accolades.

Now retired, Shane will become eligible to be inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame (NMBHOF) in 2019. I think he’s a shoo-in, personally. His stellar championsihp college resume coupled with his pretty good championship NBA resume, not to mention being the poster child for the basketball analytics movement, will probably eventually get him in. First ballot? I kinda doubt THAT, but I’d bet he’ll get there.

All that aside, I’m not here to write an article discussing Shane’s career arc or his playing style. That’s been covered to death by people who are actual basketball writers. (1) My goal here is to analyze Shane’s cultural relevance through the lens of rap music.

One stat that the NMBHOF may not take into consideration is shoutouts in rap songs. We’ve all heard countless Jordan (Real sick, raw nights, I perform like Mike/Anyone: Tyson, Jordan, Jackson. – Biggie, via Diddy – “Victory”) and LeBron (Sex all night, couple shots of Ciroc/Crib on the water, got LeBron up the block. – Rick Ross, “Diced Pineapples”), but just how many times does Shane Battier show up in the rap lexicon? Well, thanks to Rap Genius, I have been able to perform a highly scientific analysis of Shane’s rap shout outs. I was able to detect eight mentions, all of which are listed below in no particular order.

“Keep talking heat, but when it’s on they just passed away
Claiming they on the corner shooting like they Battier”
Shad – Heat

From his Rapgenius bio: “Shad is a rapper from London, Ontario and is considered by many to be the most talented rapper to come from Canada.” I have never heard of Shad, and a brief perusal of his Wikipedia article does not yield any songs I recognize. Despite never hearing of him, I like this line. The more I read it, the more I think it’s really smart. The parallels between the Miami Heat and “heat” as in pressure and death with passing in crunch time is interesting. Also, extra points for comparing shrinking under pressure in life with shrinking under pressure on a basketball court in the same line that acknowledges Shane’s favorite shot: the corner three.

“Awwww sheeit, how could they be so wack?
We got the Chi begging for us like D Rose back
We should be looking at the game like ‘we own that’
But we still shooting free throws sitting three rows back”
DANTO – DANTO (I’ma coke boy remix)

This was kind of cheating because Shane was only mentioned in the intro, but I thought this Derrick Rose line was interesting so I put that in instead. The parallel is that DANTO (an acronym for Dope ask ninjas taking over) are on the level of Derrick Rose and are currently working on their craft by giving away free songs (free throws). I don’t buy it because, thought I’m admittedly an amateur, I can’t see how an ACL tear would negatively affect rhyming.

“Get on your job lil mane, this ain’t Saturday
We in two different lanes, you can’t navigate
We in two different games, you playin’ patty cake
Brother you lame, you’re Shane Battier”
J. Cole – Rise and Shine

Lots of rappers rhyme Battier with either Saturday or a word/sentence ending with away. There’s no real continuity among all these lines beyond the rhyme scheme, and, just as well, J Cole shows that he doesn’t fully appreciate non-box scorable contributions to a basketball game. Someone’s gotta check Durant, J, and it can’t be LeBron every night.

“Same page, like co-sign, Ms. Sallie Mae
Gotcha with me till sunrise on Saturday
Other guys behind the back to a fade away
But I take it back to the basics, Shane Battier”
2Atypical – Light of Day

2Atypical rhymed Battier with away AND Saturday and used a “hashtag” style (reference basically every Nicki Minaj song) shoutout to Shane. No originality points. I do respect the acknowledgement of Shane’s basketball style, though. Shane was more of a pivot, then drive into the lane and launch a right handed hook sort of player. Also the corner three, never forget the corner three.

“Not the type to run from beef
We can do it one-on-one or one-on-three
I done battled niggas with eons on me
That DWade, that Battier
Pussy ass niggas better come with heat”
Brogod Zilla – Free Throws

This is probably my least favorite of the eight songs covered in this post. There’s really no acknowledgement of Dwyane Wade and Shane Battier as basketball players beyond acknowledging that they played for the Heat (and possibly that they’re old). Aside from his kind of clever nickname, Brogod Zilla hasn’t really offered me much to analyze. Sorry, Bro.

“We make pay like Shane Battier
Run and come and find you, they said he ran that-a-way
Law man told me to put the damn gat away
It ain’t my fault these soup ninjas get shocked
In rhymes they’re Pac, but really Anne Hathaway”
Chuuwee – 40 oz’s & 40 Sac’s

Chuuwee managed to rhyme “away” with “away” with “Hathaway”. Also, again, the Shane reference feels tacked on in order to satisfy a rhyme scheme rather than organic. Bonus points for contrasting Tupac with Anne Hathaway, though.

“We slamming E.S.G, we got’s to get the Cardiers
Cause we ball like Jason, Duhon, and Battier”
C-Styles, via E.S.G – Mash for our Cash

E.S.G. (Everyday Street Gangsta) has been involved (prominently? I’m not sure) with the “chopped and screwed” style of rap which is Houston’s iconic style. “Mash for our Cash” features a prominent Houston rapper, Slim Thug, and our deliverer, C-Styles. From what I can gather on the internet, this is the only verse that C-Styles has ever done. His other credits include producing two 50 Cent songs, “Disco Inferno” and “In My Hood”. The references in his verse (“Throw the boy out the roof, representing Bogalusa”, “In Texas they ride swangs, in Louisiana it’s daytons”) also make it pretty clear that he hails from Louisiana, which is great.

I really like this entire verse: it doesn’t feature the most profound lyrics I’ve ever heard in a rap song, but the rhyme scheme (AABBCCCCDDEECCCC) works well, the meter doesn’t feel forced, and the references (somewhat dated since ~2001) are smart. Also, I’m a sucker for songs that feature Houston rappers.

This Battier mention is the only one that was made only in reference to his college career. At the time this song came out, Battier had just come off his incredible stay at Duke (2001 National Champs, 2000 Sweet Sixteen, 1999 Runners Up, 1998 Elite Eight) and was part of a GREAT team, which featured Chis Duhon and Jason Williams. Why mention Duhon over Mike Dunleavy? Duhon grew up in Slidell, LA, which is about 40 miles from Bogalusa.

“I’m on young nigga stuff, I swear I sold it all
I had bricks the color of Battier and white as Marc Gasol”
Yo Gotti, via Jeezy – Grizzly

In two lines Gotti describes the types of drugs he’s sold by comparing them to Shane and Marc Gasol’s skin color while shouting out his hometown basketball team. It also appears that they recorded “Grizzly” during the three month or so stretch after Battier was traded from the Rockets to the Grizzlies but before he signed with the Heat roughly six weeks after their playoff run ended. This song was timely and, then, immediately obsoleted, just like that 2011 Grizzlies team (just kidding, they’ve made the playoffs every year since then and made the Western Conference Finals in 2012!)

(1) My favorite Shane Battier centric article is Michael Lewis’s “The No-Stats All-Star“.

Sleeping off the Booz or The Boozer Amnesty Bidding War (that didn’t happen)

First things first, congratulations on the amnesty of Carlos Boozer. I don’t think Boozer deserved ALL of the bad reputation that he’d picked up over the last few years, but he definitely was making too much money for his production. Replacing him with Pau Gasol is clearly a very positive move for the Bulls.

Side note: I feel like Pau’s still got it and that his lackluster performance during the Lakers last two seasons was due to misuse by Mike D’antoni and general European ennui/malaise.

Whatever Jerry Reinsdorf’s motivation was for FINALLY pulling the trigger on the amnesty, I think that move KINDA backfired. Based on the cheapitude he’s exhibited over the years, I have to assume the plan was to take advantage of the eventual Boozer Amnesty Bidding War(1) to maximize the amount of his salary that would be paid by another team. The Lakers getting him for just $3.251M is a steal; Booz plays way better than $3.25M/season, just nowhere near $16M/season.

The way the amnesty provision works: Once a team waives a player using the amnesty provision, a silent auction process takes place over the next day. Only teams with cap space are allowed to bid, and the team with the highest bid is allowed to claim the player. The player is then paid the full amount of their contract, but the winning team pays the portion of the contract they bid. For example, yesterday the Lakers won the Boozer War by posting a winning bid of $3.25M. Boozer’s 2014-2015 salary is $13.35M, so the Lakers will pay him $3.25 M and the Bulls will cover the remaining ~$10M. Considering there were several teams with nearly $10M in available (or clearable) cap room (and this is the final year of Boozer’s contract), I assume it was believed the bid would be somewhat higher.

(1) This sounds like the title of an Every Time I Die album

The First Night of LeBronukkah: The Rockets

By Ross Poland

Ed. Note: Just like Chaunkah is too big of a day to be contained to one day, covering the NBA’s offseason is too big for one post. This is our first covering basketball’s Festival of Lights.

The LeBron to Houston bandwagon is picking up steam around here.(Ed Note: Ross lives in Houston)  I want to believe, but I don’t.  So that sucks.

Just for fun though, I did some Math and it appears that, if the Rockets can trade Lin and Asik for nothing, they’ll be able to clear roughly enough cap space to sign someone. Someone good.

Their current cap figure for the 2015 season is $63.2.  This includes Francisco Garcia’s $1.3M player option, which he will likely decline, and Chandler Parsons’ new Restricted Free Agent (RFA) cap hold.  Trading Lin and Asik for nothing would decrease the cap figure to ~$46.5M, which would be a little flexible if they felt like trading Terrence Jones or Donatas Montiejunas. < I’m not sure what you mean in the last half of the sentence >

$16.8M in cap room is pretty good, but it’s a little presumptuous to demand that a top-tier free agent take a pay cut while Dwight and James do no such thing.  Unfortunately, renouncing Chandler Parsons and his $2.6M cap hold could be what makes the difference.

Parsons as an RFA causes a few problems, greatest of which is other teams attempting to screw the Rockets by clogging up their cap sheet with a large offer for Parsons.  Were Parsons to sign an offer sheet for another team at a starting salary of $8-9M/season, his cap hold for the Rockets would equal that amount.  This would kill the chances to sign a new super player while retaining Parsons.  The plan, I’m assuming, is Houston hopes  Parsons will wait to sign an offer sheet with another team until after the Rockets conclude any new free agent negotiations and the contracts have been signed.  After this is complete, they can use his bird rights to go over the salary cap and re-sign him at any salary up to his max.

Of course, this all hinges on being able to give away Lin and Asik for essentially no returning salary.  By my estimation there are at least 5 teams (Boston, Philly, Phoenix, Orlando, and Utah) that need to add contracts in order to meet the salary floor requirements.  These teams could also all use a top 15 or so starting center.  Maybe to a lesser degree, some of them could use a reasonably good offensive point guard.  If they insist, which it’s reasonable to assume they will, the offer to accept Lin or Asik without returning salary could be sweetened by throwing in some draft picks.  All of these teams like to hoard draft picks.  Based on Daryl Morey’s history of getting deals done and the fact that he has a few assets laying around to grease palms, I don’t think that unloading those two contracts will be impossible if it means he’ll be signing another great player.

If Morey does end up making the contracts work out, the remaining Rockets roster would be something like this:

Beverley / Canaan
Harden / Troy Daniels (remember him?)
Parsons / Robert Covington (he’s good I swear, he won Dleague MVP)
Super Player / Terrence Jones
Dwight / Montiejunas

I think that has potential to be a championship caliber starting roster, but I would be somewhat concerned about the depth given what just happened to Miami.  If anything, Morey has proven that he’s pretty good at finding good deals for 7-9th men, so there’s reason to have faith.  Bottom line, I’m on board with it.

NBA Players Do Get Tired

By Ross Poland

The Miami Heat just got run off the floor in the 2014 Finals by the San Antonio Spurs. Miami’s lack of bench production and all-around fatigue appeared to be a strong contributor to San Antonio’s utter dominance, but just how much worse than usual was Miami? Was their fatigue due to a long regular season or due to mental fatigue from getting to four consecutive NBA Finals?

To try to answer these questions, let’s take a look at some of the players most frequently used by each of the four Conference Finalists. For the sake of brevity, I’ll show stats from five players from each team.¹ As a rudimentary way of comparing their performance in the regular season to the playoffs, we’ll compare their Player Efficiency Ratings (PER).²

San Antonio

Player	Season Minutes	Season PER	Playoff PER
Tim Duncan	2158	21.3	21.0
Tony Parker	1977	18.9	15.7
Danny Green	1651	13.9	16.5
Boris Diaw	1874	14.1	15.4
Kawhi Leonard	1923	19.4	18.7

San Antonio made history this season by limiting each of their players to fewer than thirty minutes per game. Gregg Popovich was able to keep his players fresh and mostly free from injury by keeping them off the court. It’s natural that the Spurs would adhere to such strict minute limits due to the advanced age of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. In addition to the players listed here, Marco Bellinelli, Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills, and Tiago Splitter all played a huge part in the Spurs preservation of their stars’ health.

In the playoffs, the only noticeable PER dropoff was Tony Parker. Parker’s downturn, which didn’t actually happen, is an artifact of the PER stat. Simply put, Parker’s PER probably dropped due to his assist totals decreasing and his 2 pt FG% dropping slightly during the playoffs. The assist decrease wasn’t due to him not passing, but due to the scoring pass coming from him less frequently than during the season. This phenomenon is known as the “hockey assist”. No one knows where the term originated.

Miami

Player	Season Minutes	Season PER	Playoff PER
LeBron James	2902	29.3	31.1
Chris Bosh	2531	19.0	18.2
Dwyane Wade	1775	22.0	18.5
Mario Chalmers	2178	14.0	10.2
Norris Cole	2014	8.0	7.2

LeBron James has played an astonishing amount of professional basketball since he joined the Miami Heat. Having been to four consecutive Finals, he’s played nearly an additional season’s worth of games over this time period.³ Naturally, he got better in the Playoffs. His PER in this case is both accurate and inaccurate.

Though LeBron was great, the rest of his team morphed into the 2007 Cavaliers. Chris Bosh had a pretty good series, but didn’t elevate his game as the way he did during the previous two Championship series for the Heat. Dwyane Wade, despite severe minutes restrictions during the 2013-2014 season, was rendered almost useless in the Finals. His 18.5 Playoff PER is somewhat skewed by how well he played in the first three rounds. By the time he faced the Spurs in the Finals, it was clear that whatever was ailing him finally caught up. Most alarmingly; however, the rest of the Heat fell almost completely apart. I won’t go into extended detail, but suffice to say that Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are a pretty reasonable representation of how much the rest of the non-LeBron heat contributed. Except for Rashard Lewis; that dude played pretty well.

Indiana

Player	Season Minutes	Season PER	Playoff PER
Paul George	2898	20.1	20.5
Lance Stephenson	2752	14.7	13.5
George Hill	2434	13.4	12.7
David West	2472	17.5	15.5
Roy Hibbert	2409	13.5	12.1

Frank Vogel ran his starters into the ground, plain and simple. Roy Hibbert, savior of in-the-paint defense during the 2013 Playoffs, regressed noticeably throughout the entire season. By the time the Playoffs started, he was borderline unplayable after frequently going scoreless and rebounding poorly. It’s impossible to say whether Hibbert was playing through an injury, if he was simply tired, or if there were other factors at play. Luckily the Pacers managed to avoid any serious injuries (possibly excluding Hibbert), but they also never developed any backup plans with their bench. Evan Turner made his best contribution to the team by catching strep throat. Andrew Bynum appeared to become the embodiment of a story by The Onion.⁴ The only bench players to log any serious minutes were Ian Mahinmi and Luis Scola. Chris Copeland was never worked into the rotation until they were desperate during the first round against the Hawks. For a moment in the Heat series it felt like they finally realized that they have a pretty great transition offense in between George, Stephenson, and Hill. Unfortunately, as quickly as they started showing some promise of beating the Heat at their own game, the Heat answered with a roster tweak of their own in Rashard Lewis and revitalized Dwyane Wade.

With reference to their PER shift, the Pacers had an abysmal offensive performance during the last half of the season that extended into the Playoffs. During the season they averaged roughly 97 points per game, which dropped to 91 points per game in the Playoffs. Paul George averaged almost a third of those points during each game. Their poor scoring accounts for the team-wide PER decrease, but even that decrease doesn’t do their postseason justice. I won’t go into great detail about how bad they looked since it’s been covered pretty extensively by basically everyone (it was really bad).

Oklahoma City

Player	Season Minutes	Season PER	Playoff PER
Kevin Durant	3122	29.8	22.6
Serge Ibaka	2666	19.6	16.6
Thabo Sefolosha	1584	10.4	9.0
Kendrick Perkins	1207	6.3	6.6
Russell Westbrook	1412	24.7	24.9

Kevin Durant led the league in minutes and in points this season. He had an incredible season and deservedly earned his first MVP award. Unfortunately, Durant had to watch from afar as Kawhi Leonard accepted the MVP trophy he certainly would have preferred.

The Playoffs weren’t kind to Durant. His hometown newspaper called him unreliable. He shot poorly (for him) against the Spurs. Durant’s ability to fill up a box score dropped off more than any other player, according to the PER metric. It’s not really a mystery why this is the case: Durant had to load up on points during the regular season, and he did so extremely efficiently. During the playoffs, his point, rebound, and assist totals dropped off as did his shooting efficiency. He went from “all time amazing” to “wow, this guy is good”. It makes sense that, as the playoffs progress, defenses become better at containing him. But wait, what happened to Russell Westbrook? Well, his numbers are a bit deceptive. Westbrook certainly played a huge part in OKC’s playoff run, but he did it while shooting a lot (he shot 2 more 2 point field goals and an extra 3 point field goal per game, on average). He scored more and assisted more, but he missed more too. Now, this isn’t me saying that Westbrook lost the series against the Spurs for OKC. Far from it; he was their best player. It’s just worth mentioning that there’s more than one way to affect PER.

Aside from Westbrook and Durant, the Thunder found themselves scrambling for third and fourth options just like Indiana and, eventually, Miami. Jeremy Lamb played a huge part in Oklahoma’s first win of the series, but he got minutes in place of Thabo Sefolosha, whose offensive regression made him extremely difficult to keep on the court. Kendrick Perkins played reasonably well, but he has never been an offensive player who commands much attention from the defense. In the end, Derek Fischer, Jeremy Lamb, and Caron Butler combined for 357 minutes (roughly 25% of the entire series) and Sefolosha received two DNPs. That trio played just 200 (19%) during the six game series with the Clippers, while Sefolosha played 105 by himself.

The Argument for the Bench

It’s difficult to find a correlation between overplayed players and subpar playoff performance just this year. One year of the Playoffs is a small sample size. Certainly, there are examples that indicate overplaying may have a negative effect on individual performance, but it’s hard to say exactly why. Kevin Durant had noticeably worse Playoffs than regular season, but LeBron James remained his usual level of superhuman. Minute restrictions will obviously help reduce fatigue, but exactly how important is that for a “young” player’s performance?

I don’t know if there’s a certain amount of minutes that, if exceeded, will cause a player undue amounts of stress and performance loss, but I think it’s pretty safe to say that players who have been treated like workhorses end up suffering. Amar’e Stoudemire hasn’t been the same since Mike D’antoni overplayed him in the 2010-2011 season. To pick on D’antoni again, Kobe Bryant tore his Achilles tendon during a two-week stretch in which he averaged 45.5 minutes per game.

In direct contrast, the five most-played Spurs during the 2013-2014 season (Duncan, Diaw, Bellinelli, Leonard, and Parker) each clocked in just over 2000 minutes for the season, which equates to just over 42 “full” games played over the course of a season. The next four most-played (Green, Ginobili, Splitter, and Mills) played a combined 5,999 minutes, or just over 31 “full” games played.

This year, Kevin Durant played the equivalent of 65 “full” games during his regular season alone. He logged more minutes before the playoffs started than Tim Duncan did during his entire season and Championship run combined.

If there is a point to my discussion of limiting minutes, it’s that the Spurs have clearly picked up on something beneficial. The Spurs sustained injuries to Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Tiago Splitter, Manu Ginobili, and Danny Green (combined 81 games missed) during their season, and were still able to finish with a league-leading 62 wins. They frequently rested players on back to backs and played without a full roster against top tier teams in an effort to preserve energy and health. But, what’s perhaps even more important than their health, Popovich was forced to experiment with a wide variety of lineups and players. It was this experimentation that led to the emergence of Green, Diaw, and Mills as dependable players. By the time the Finals came around, the Spurs were ready for every permutation of Heat players that Eric Spoelstra could put on the floor. Their substitution patterns and assignments were second-nature, and they were able to produce points in ways the Heat had no chance to stop.

We all like to think that these guys are immune to normal human ailments like getting tired and dealing with strained muscles. The truth is that it’s a knock on their toughness to rest properly. Sure, we all admire when a player goes the extra mile for a win, or to drag his team to a higher playoff seed. But wouldn’t we all be happier in the long run if skipping a game here and there led to LeBron James or Kevin Durant winning a championship in 2025 rather than a spot in Naismith in 2022?

1^ In a few cases I included a player who wasn’t top 5 in minutes played. I did this to account for specific situations like Dwyane Wade’s limited minutes, Russell Westbrook’s knee surgery, and Tony Parker’s injury

2^ PER is actually a pretty bad stat for discussing the actual efficiency of a player’s minutes. Really, I just like to use it to determine who did most of the work in a particular period of time. High PER will usually correlate with production.

3^ Not like, he played in 82 more games than he would have by not going to the Playoffs; he’s played 75.5 additional games worth of minutes in the Playoffs since 2011. That doesn’t even take into account his time with the US National Team in 2012.

4^ Stephon Marbury Embroils Celtics’ Big 3 in Elaborate Shakespearean Intrigue. Imagine Bynum as Marbury and swap the two starting rosters and this is basically an NBA Mad Libs.