It was a down year in college basketball for me. It speaks to the direction of the game that I have to force myself to watch college ball over the NBA. Perhaps it’s just me, but it seems like the basketball crowd is swinging towards the NBA more each year. I’m hearing fewer and fewer people throw out the blanket statement, “The NBA sucks. I like college.” Regardless, NCAA hoops will always have one of the 4 greatest sporting events, and it has the benefit of occurring annually. (My other 3: Super Bowl, Ryder Cup and World Cup.) 2015 was no exception to the rule, so let’s wrap up the NCAA tourney and peer into our glass ball for the future of college basketball.
The Final
Duke deserved the title. Their game plan was solid, subtle adjustments worked for them, and the players executed down the stretch. With Tyus Jones’ huge shots, their defense might get lost in the mix. But defense won the game for the Dukies. The Blue Devils knew what Wisconsin wanted to do and tailored their defensive game plan accordingly. Wisconsin needed more Kaminsky, but Duke made that extremely difficult, if not impossible. The number of times Tank had to start moves with a dribble drive had to be at least double the average. Frank can do it, but he IS still a slow footed 7 footer. Enough hands and bodies forced him to give it up more times than not. Combine that with the guard pressure challenging all passes, and getting Frank Kaminsky the ball on the block was quite the task.
Wisconsin did not deserve the title. The best players were outperformed down the stretch. Dekker’s shot looked tired. The pressure bothered the guards, and Bo Ryan played the same way he had all year, which means high screens absolutely killed them. Coach K knew he could get Tyus Jones a shot at any time because there was not going to be a show from the big. The offense looked pathetic against the zone Duke employed, negating any foul trouble advantages. Wisconsin would never change their offensive game plan, but the Badger’s offense would have benefitted from a few set plays in the vein of an NBA offense. Spread shooters out and set some high pick and rolls. Koenig could beat his man, but there was too much trash at the top of the key and lane any time he did. Spreading Duke out and working a two man game would have produced some better looks, especially in crunch time.
The refs need to be relegated. Can we do that? Those three should be officiating junior high girls next year. In the NBA, rarely are refs labeled this dependably bad. Consistency was the issue. Consistency from the first half to the second half, consistency from outside the lane to at the basket. Duke’s guards were handsy and bodying Wisconsin guards up and down the court. That was fine in the first half, as I felt that was happening on both sides, all over the court. The refs must have looked at the foul total, or heard Coach K talk at halftime. Duke was given the benefit of the doubt with every collision at the rim. There were 4 calls that were just not fouls and if anything, should have been praised as good defense. Duke’s guards have a bad (is it bad if it works?) habit of using their off arm to clear out space. When the defender tries to recover, the offensive player throws his body forward to create contact. What are NBA refs taught that college refs aren’t? Why are NBA refs so much better at simply not blowing their whistle?
And why the hell do we even have reviews? 5 minutes were wasted to get it wrong. From this tournament, college basketball has to revamp the review system, or just scratch it, because the NCAA is obviously clueless. The MLB and NFL have implemented some sort of off the field crew. Why could this not be done for the Final Four??? The ball was clearly off Winslow, from every angle. I understand how the ball was rewarded to Duke initially, but every replay angle indicated otherwise. I do not enjoy watching three grown men make fools of themselves.
NBA Potential
Frank Kaminsky: Best Case – Poor man’s Gasol, Worst Case – Chris Kaman
Frank is soft on defense. I’m not sure if he was trying to avoid foul trouble, or if he just is that movable on the block. He will have to be able to stand his ground in the NBA. He uses his body very intelligently, and I think he will be able to rebound at the NBA level. His offense is more than NBA ready, so teams will have to judge where he fits into their defensive schemes. Barring injury, he’ll make money playing basketball for a while.
Sam Dekker: Best Case – Matt Barnes, Worst Case – Chase Budinger
Dekker has to work on his outside shooting and defense. I see him as a slasher that can hold his own on defense. He’ll never be a stopper but should defend well in a scheme. The jumper will be the key. If he develops a midrange that is at least a threat and can shoot 40% from three, then that will help set up the strengths we all saw in the Final Four.
Jahlil Okafor: Best Case – DeMarcus Cousins, Worst Case – Brook Lopez
Freshmen are always difficult to project, which is why the range is wider. At worst case, Jahlil will be a force to be reckoned with on the offensive end, as he already possesses a solid offensive infrastructure for a big. If he stays in shape, works on 16’ jumpers and is ready to work on defense at least 75% of the time, then he’s a slightly less athletic Boogie without the baggage. If he doesn’t, he’ll be getting 30 touches a night for a 30 win team as opposing bigs make him their son. No offense Brook.
Justise Winslow: Best Case – James Harden, Worse Case – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Athleticism is not difficult to project. Winslow could never improve his jumper, forget how to get to the basket, insult Dorothy Mantooth and still be a force in the NBA with his athleticism. USA today compared him to Jimmy Butler or Kawhi. Those two did not have the aggression or ball handling that Justise has coming out of college. Now, Winslow is still raw. He has moments where he predetermines he’s going to the basket, which will not work at the next level. However, he’s got the Eurostep and left handedness going for him already…
Going forward
It was a fairly typical regular season. The Big Ten beat each other up. The ACC was strong and showed it in the tourney. The Big 12 was strong and took a crap at center court because some things never change. Whatever the Big East is now had a couple good teams, then failed to meet expectations. West coast basketball, as we used to know it, doesn’t exist anymore.
I want to look at the bigger picture moving forward in college basketball. The toothpaste, as the saying goes, is out of the tube. Coach K is now recruiting freshmen that will, in all likelihood, leave after a year. This year you saw what a good coach can do with a couple of those players. Duke was up and down all season, but that’s because Krzyzewski had to speed his process up. He had one season to fit pieces together instead of 2 or 3. While this resulted in some bad losses early, the skipper found out what he needed to know about his 18 and 19 year old kids. We saw how that came together in the tournament.
This is not saying Calipari is a bad coach; he just isn’t a great one. He’s an amazing recruiter and a solid coach. He’s just not transcendent, for whatever reason, with the X’s and O’s,and it cost them against Wisconsin. You can bet Coach K will always put his kids in a position to win, which is scary for all the rest.
So who is the next one to give in to the reality of college basketball? Bo Ryan will be the last. Tom Crean probably doesn’t know who won the national championship. Does Izzo jump next? Look out for Shaka down in Texas. Within 2 years that program will be formidable. Eventually, UCLA will hit on a prospect and jumpstart their program. Arizona has already started down that road.
Other programs will start selling out for these guys yearly. Previously, I think programs wanted the Kentucky players, but coaches were afraid they were just wasting time, and wondered if they could even win that way. Duke just proved you can, even without an Anthony Davis type superstar. If the rules regarding NBA eligibility don’t change, college basketball is drifting towards 6 or so elite teams that get the majority of these recruits and duel it out at the end of the year. There will be a few programs here and there that compete with a traditional approach, but even those team require running into NBA talent (see Wisconsin). Do we really want to see Kentucky, Texas and Duke battle it out each year? It’s good for the programs, but how good is it for the sport? How good is it for the players?
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